To Win the Presidency, Biden and Bernie Must Join Forces
Ask any political observer what it will take for Democrats to win back the White House, and they will tell you that to have a fighting chance, the party must unite its moderate and progressive wings. Speak to voters however, and you will quickly detect a festering hostility between the two sides, as both have been pitching an ever escalating, no-holds-barred battle that has left them feeling bitter and suspicious of the other’s intentions. Harsh accusations and lingering resentments make reconciliation difficult, especially if neither side believes that the other has a viable path to victory in November.
Sensing a potential catastrophe on their hands, in the days leading up to Super Tuesday, moderates have hastily coalesced around Joe Biden, whose decisive victory in South Carolina on Saturday re-established him as the torch-bearer of the Democratic establishment. While consolidating the moderate vote behind a single candidate will help, it’s not certain that Biden will regain enough momentum to overtake Bernie Sanders, whose victories in New Hampshire and Nevada — and his near victory in Iowa — have proved that his message is resonating with a growing proportion of Americans.
If neither Biden nor Bernie win an outright majority of delegates before the Democratic National Convention in mid-July, the Democratic Party will have its first brokered convention since 1952 (political forecasting site FiveThirtyEight.com currently predicts that a brokered convention is the likeliest outcome). The potential for a brokered convention presents a nightmare scenario for Democrats, as it will ultimately leave one wing of the party feeling aggrieved — or worse, cheated — since the eventual nominee will not be chosen by a majority of voters, but rather, by unelected superdelegates who are party representatives tasked with voting for the candidate of their choice if the first ballot does not return a clear winner.
Adding to the calamity posed by a brokered convention lies the real threat that Bernie’s base — many of whom are fervent loyalists — would not vote for Biden if they believe that their candidate was usurped. Many have gone on record to say that if Bernie is not the nominee, they are likely to sit the election out. The party establishment must resist the temptation to lob accusations of extortion, and instead, must find a way to engage these voters because whether right or wrong, fair or unfair, the fact remains that any path to the White House must include Bernie’s base. Even if a small proportion defect, or stay home on election day, the path to victory narrows to something little more than a fantasy.
As dire as the above outcome is, running parallel to it is an opportunity for Democrats to act boldly to right a fast-sinking ship. There is a possibility, however remote, that a brokered convention will unite the party, align its message and its goals, broaden its coalition, and set its sights on Donald Trump and the Republican Party. For that to happen, Biden and Bernie must agree to be on the same ticket, with Biden as the presidential nominee and Bernie as his running mate.
For a Biden/Bernie ticket to be viable, however, Biden must first win the largest plurality of delegates. If he is successful in doing so, he will have the most credible claim to the nomination, even if he doesn’t have the outright majority of delegates. More importantly, Biden’s delegate edge would deprive Bernie’s supporters of any reasonable argument that the nomination was stolen. Bernie is many things, but above all, he has shown himself to be an honest person, and it is safe to believe that he would acknowledge that Biden’s larger delegate count shows that he does not have the broad-based support necessary to win a national election. Lastly, at the debate in Las Vegas, Bernie went on record to say that he believes that the candidate with the largest plurality of delegates at the Convention should receive the nomination; backtracking from that position for the sake of political expedience would be grossly disingenuous and uncharacteristic.
That said, simply winning a plurality of delegates is not going to be enough to heal wounds and unite the party. To do that, Biden has to find a way to keep Bernie’s supporters energized and motivated (qualities that his own tepid campaign sorely lacks). Bringing Bernie on as VP signals to progressives that the party is listening, and that the progressives’ most pressing policy issues — income inequality, access to healthcare, and climate change — are being taken seriously. Moreover, it could potentially peel away some Trump voters for whom Bernie’s populist, protectionist message has appeal.
All the while, Biden will retain his broad-based support in the African American community, and he can continue to target affluent and suburban voters with his pitch for steady leadership and a return to the pragmatism and decency of the Obama years. If challenged by moderates on his VP pick, he can argue, credibly, that it’s better to keep Bernie in the tent than to have him agitating outside of it. If challenged by progressives, he can argue, again, credibly, that the party recognizes the shifting values of its base, and Bernie’s role will be to continue to engage younger voters and to strengthen the coalition between centrists and progressives, many of whom ostensibly recognize the same core concerns about income inequality, climate change and access to jobs and opportunities in a globalizing economy.
For Bernie, a VP nod may, on its face, seem like a concession to the establishment and an admission of defeat, but if he falls behind Biden in the delegate count, he must acknowledge that his political revolution has fallen short (for now). Despite that, there are pragmatic reasons for him to accept the role; chief among them, helping to defeat Donald Trump, whom he has called “the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country.”
Moreover, as Vice President, he will have a larger platform to impact policy and to keep his agenda relevant. While it’s unlikely that a Biden administration will pursue a Medicare-for-All plan, Bernie — and his progressive base — can push for bigger concessions in expanding Obamacare. Similarly, he can advocate for stronger consumer protections, a higher federal minimum wage, and a variety of other policy proposals that target income inequality. And most importantly, as Vice President, Bernie can help a Biden administration lay the foundation for a a set of aggressive new environmental measures (just don’t call it a Green New Deal) that will combat the worst effects of climate change. But policy goals aside, the platform of the vice presidency affords Bernie’s left-leaning agenda — often pejoratively labeled extreme and dangerous — a legitimacy that it has not enjoyed since the 1940s. Not only does that keep the momentum for his revolution alive, but it sets the stage for future candidates who can step into his shoes and take up the mantle of progressive reform.
To win in November, Biden and Bernie must team up to achieve the goal that neither is likely to accomplish on his own. It would be a win for each of them individually and a win for the party, but most importantly, it would be a win for a country that so desperately needs to see their leaders come together for the greater good.